Genetic study · N Engl J Med 2016
Ference 2016
Variation in PCSK9 and HMGCR and Risk of Cardiovascular Disease and Diabetes.
The bottom line
Genetic mimicry shows that lowering LDL cholesterol via PCSK9 variants protects against cardiovascular events about as much as HMGCR (statin-target) variants, but both are linked to a smaller, additive increase in diabetes risk.
Supports LDL causalityUS status: Not applicable
At a glance
- Medicine
- Genetic score of LDL-lowering alleles in PCSK9 (and HMGCR) used as proxy for pharmacologic PCSK9 inhibition (and statin therapy)
- Compared with
- PCSK9 variants vs HMGCR variants (Mendelian randomization comparison); also combined vs individual gene scores
- People
- 112,772
- Who took part
- 112,772 participants from 14 studies, with 14,120 cardiovascular events and 10,635 cases of diabetes, grouped by number of LDL cholesterol-lowering alleles inherited in PCSK9 and HMGCR genes
- Design
- Mendelian randomization using genetic scores of independently inherited PCSK9 and HMGCR variants to randomly assign participants according to number of LDL-lowering alleles inherited, across 14 studies
- Follow-up
- Main question
- Risk of cardiovascular events (and risk of diabetes) associated with LDL cholesterol-lowering genetic variants in PCSK9 and HMGCR
Main result
Odds ratio for cardiovascular events per 10 mg/dl decrease in LDL cholesterol: 0.81 (95% CI, 0.74 to 0.89) for PCSK9 and 0.81 (95% CI, 0.72 to 0.90) for HMGCR
Effect on LDL cholesterol
Analyzed per 10 mg/dl (0.26 mmol/liter) decrease in LDL cholesterol level
Other results
Diabetes risk: odds ratio per 10 mg/dl decrease in LDL cholesterol, 1.11 (95% CI, 1.04 to 1.19) for PCSK9 and 1.13 (95% CI, 1.06 to 1.20) for HMGCR; increased risk of diabetes was limited to persons with impaired fasting glucose levels for both scores and was lower in magnitude than the protective effect against cardiovascular events; when present together, PCSK9 and HMGCR variants had additive effects on the risk of both cardiovascular events and diabetes.
In the trial's own words
“Variants in PCSK9 and HMGCR were associated with nearly identical protective effects on the risk of cardiovascular events per decrease of 10 mg per deciliter (0.26 mmol per liter) in the LDL cholesterol level: odds ratio for cardiovascular events, 0.81 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.74 to 0.89) for PCSK9 and 0.81 (95% CI, 0.72 to 0.90) for HMGCR. Variants in these two genes were also associated with very similar effects on the risk of diabetes: odds ratio for each 10 mg per deciliter decrease in LDL cholesterol, 1.11 (95% CI, 1.04 to 1.19) for PCSK9 and 1.13 (95% CI, 1.06 to 1.20) for HMGCR.”
Quoted from the abstract of N Engl J Med 2016, checked word for word against PubMed. PubMed 27959767 · Full paper (DOI)
Common questions
What did the Ference 2016 trial find?
Genetic mimicry shows that lowering LDL cholesterol via PCSK9 variants protects against cardiovascular events about as much as HMGCR (statin-target) variants, but both are linked to a smaller, additive increase in diabetes risk.
Who was in Ference 2016?
112,772 people. 112,772 participants from 14 studies, with 14,120 cardiovascular events and 10,635 cases of diabetes, grouped by number of LDL cholesterol-lowering alleles inherited in PCSK9 and HMGCR genes.
What was Ference 2016's main result?
Odds ratio for cardiovascular events per 10 mg/dl decrease in LDL cholesterol: 0.81 (95% CI, 0.74 to 0.89) for PCSK9 and 0.81 (95% CI, 0.72 to 0.90) for HMGCR
How much did LDL cholesterol change in Ference 2016?
Analyzed per 10 mg/dl (0.26 mmol/liter) decrease in LDL cholesterol level
Related trials
- Cohen 2006 (2006)People who naturally carry LDL-lowering PCSK9 gene variants from birth have a dramatically lower lifetime risk of coronary heart disease, supporting that lowering LDL-C, even modestly, over a lifetime substantially cuts cardiovascular risk.
- Heart-2 (2026)A single intravenous dose of the base-editing drug VERVE-102 produced dose-dependent, durable reductions in PCSK9 and LDL cholesterol, with an acceptable early safety profile, in a small phase 1 trial.
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